Furniture "up" sounds one after another

In the first quarter of 2011, in the midst of a smashing past, in the "12th Five-Year Plan" expansion of domestic demand and the most severely suppressed real estate policy in the history, the furniture consumer market has presented an unprecedented market situation: the scale of the exhibition is ahead, investment The quality of the agent exceeded the previous years; but at the terminal, consumers did not seem to buy it. In the frequent market promotions and crazy group buying activities, the furniture consumption market in the first quarter was slightly weak.


In the case of the pros and cons, the report on the price increase of furniture companies is often seen in the newspaper network: most furniture brands have said that the retail price will be raised in the second quarter. The "up" sound resonates between the furniture stores in the chorus of food and daily chemicals. In the end, it is a hot investment market that makes the brand not rise, or is it forced to rise due to cost pressure, or is it both, is it just speculation in the market? The author knocks one or two from the economic data.

Driven by domestic demand, economic growth is strong?

The Purchasing Managers' Index PMI is an index that represents the manufacturing boom. The China PMI index for March 2011 was 53.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the PMI index rebounded. Although it continued the trend of rising month by month, the absolute level in March and March was weaker than the historical period.

From the perspective of sub-indicators, various indicators climbed the most, of which the backlog of orders index and finished goods inventory index rose by nearly 5 percentage points. The production index went back three consecutive months and climbed 1.9 percentage points again. It can be seen that the risk of economic downturn has not been completely lifted. At least for now, the kinetic energy of domestic demand driving the furniture manufacturing industry has not appeared.

High CPI, increased costs?

At the beginning of 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics revised the proportion of CPI statistics. Among the eight categories of consumer prices, foods decreased by 2.21 percentage points, tobacco and alcohol decreased by 0.51 percentage points, and residential categories increased by 4.22 percentage points. This action was initially questioned by domestic and foreign media: Is the government modifying CPI and hiding inflation? From the CPI data of January and February of the first quarter, it is actually intriguing 4.9%. The current March CPI data has not been announced, but from the last day of the Ching Ming Festival holiday, and three months this year, The central bank has used the currency contraction tool and has raised the deposit reserve rate by 2 times. The inflation is indeed fierce.

International crude oil prices and gold prices have set a new record high in the financial crisis in early April. Crude oil, as a necessity for most chemical industries, will inevitably affect the prices of glass, paint, adhesives, etc. The cost of furniture companies has indeed increased a lot. The price of gold has a guiding role in the price of non-ferrous metals, and the price of metal parts also affects the cost of furniture companies.

The increase in the weight of the dwelling class in the CPI includes the construction and decoration materials that account for 27% of the total weight of the dwellings. If the price rise of furniture companies in the second quarter is common, it is believed that the CPI index will be raised, and the liquidity will be tightened. This is a vicious circle, and eventually the furniture enterprises will be brought into the same dilemma as the 2008 capital market.

Poor brand hype, market speculation?

From the house to the salt, consumers have always bought and not bought, and furniture companies are riding this wave of price increases. They don’t make some noise in the industry, and it seems that they can’t say it. It is not surprising that the method of obtaining cash flow from the price increase in advance to raise the price. In the usual shopping guide, giving consumers the expectation of price increases, so that consumers have a purchasing advantage to quickly place orders, seems to be the most common means. Making furniture into futures trading, and the large proportion of forward transactions over recent transactions may be a helpless choice for this competitive market.

In consumer psychology, the same product, the price of 1199 yuan hit 9.5 fold, or the price of 1999 yuan hit 60% off, the latter in the promotion, on the one hand more reflects the brand value, on the other hand more consumer Eyeballs. In the era of rapid dissemination of information, it is necessary to convey the information. In the same year, Bolloni’s Cai Ming was not good at blog commentary. This year, Wang Wei’s 315 Weibo broadcasts on the palm of the hand. In the end, it’s really price increase, or the price increase is more discounted, but the price is cut. What? It's like the apple of the Red Apple April Fool's Day, sweet and not sweet, only the consumers know.

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