A new group called the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, established under the World Health Organization and the World Bank, has issued a chilling report highlighting that the world remains dangerously unprepared for the next global pandemic.
Some key takeaways (or, more accurately, warning signs):
- The report states that "the world is not prepared for a fast-moving, virulent respiratory pathogen pandemic."
- In a scenario similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic, it warns that between 50 to 80 million people could die. Beyond the human toll, such an event could spark panic, threaten national security, and severely disrupt the global economy and trade.
- One of the biggest obstacles to preparedness is the lack of sustained political will at all levels.
- A bioweapon—whether released intentionally or by accident—poses a major threat, with potentially even worse consequences than a natural outbreak.
- Poorer countries are likely to be the first to face a major health crisis, and their populations will suffer the most.
Both The Independent and Foreign Policy have covered the report, but the latter, written by Pulitzer Prize-winning science journalist Laurie Garrett, offers particularly insightful analysis. Her perspective is bleak: she argues that “it will likely take much more than expert reports to mobilize serious collective efforts to prevent and prepare for catastrophe.â€
Basic preparation is out of reach in some areas
Many of the report’s recommendations rely on local governments cooperating in affected regions—but in places like conflict zones, where diseases like Ebola are already spreading, this cooperation is often absent.
For example, one of the key recommendations is that “all countries must develop a system for immediately sharing genome sequences of any new pathogen for public health purposes, along with the means to share limited medical countermeasures across countries.â€
Yet in Tanzania, there’s currently a disease with Ebola-like symptoms, and the government isn’t sharing clinical data. This has raised serious concerns within the WHO:
Several unexplained cases of a disease with Ebola-like symptoms in Tanzania have prompted an extraordinary statement from the World Health Organization questioning the response of the country’s health authorities.
WHO warned that lack of information over the cases, including clinical data, possible contacts, and potential laboratory tests performed for differential diagnosis of the patients had not been communicated, leaving it unable to assess the potential risk.
The statement comes hard on the heels of similar remarks by the US health secretary, Alex Azar, last week amid mounting concern that Tanzania may be in breach of its international commitments to share critical data relating to global health security.
We don’t yet know which virus is causing the illness, and we might not find out until it's too late. The situation is tense and worrying.
Money is the ultimate form of pandemic prep
Across the board, the report shows that wealth determines who suffers and who can weather the storm. This holds true both internationally and within individual countries.
For wealthy nations like the U.S., the economic impact of a pandemic would be significant but manageable—around a 0.5% hit to GDP, according to the report. But for less developed countries, the effects would be far more devastating, both economically and in terms of lives lost.
Even within the U.S., wealth plays a big role. The best defense for many Americans is having savings to fall back on if they need to miss work to avoid infection. Flexibility, whether through cash reserves or paid time off, can make a huge difference in reducing exposure risk.
And even if you're working from home, you might still need to take time off to care for sick family members, stock up on supplies, or manage kids staying home from school.
This link between money and preparedness is something I’ve seen repeatedly in my own disaster preparedness research. Rather than leveling the playing field, large-scale disasters tend to widen existing inequalities. That’s why smart prepping includes paying down debt and living within your means—because when the next crisis hits, those who are financially stable are more likely to survive with minimal disruption.
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