Pulp futures went on the market, and the bleached softwood pulp delivered by the standard was shorted by the institution, and the price plummeted. After the plunge, the long-term pulp disappeared, and there is hope in the future pulp. The long-term trading is divided by the game of industry and capital; in the discussion of the price of wood pulp in 2019, combined with the judgment of the industry in the early stage. Judging the changes in supply and demand and the pattern of the national commodity pulp, it is our choice to see more 2019 pulp prices!
Core logic
1. The current spot price has been seriously upside down, and traders have experienced large losses, and real transactions are difficult to sustain;
2. Suppliers have significantly reduced their shipments since October, and it is expected that the arrival of Hong Kong in December-January will fall sharply;
3. Brazil's two broad-leaf commercial pulp merchants merged into the final process, and 11 million tons of capacity will form synergies.
Ten reasons to see more 2019 pulp prices
First, the current spot price has been seriously upside down, traders have fallen sharply, and real transactions are difficult to sustain.
As of the end of November, the three major ports had high stocks, including Qingdao Port of 900,000 tons, up 109% year-on-year, and Changshu Port of 540,000 tons, up 38% year-on-year. Among them, the softwood pulp is about 500,000 tons, and the rest is hardwood broad-leaf pulp. At present, most of the port stocks are from August to September for global suppliers to China, and the comprehensive cost is above 6,800 yuan / ton. With the current market price of 5,700 yuan / ton, traders floating losses of 1100-1300 yuan / ton, digesting the inventory stage, at the real trading level, the current spot price is difficult to sustain.
Second, suppliers have significantly reduced the volume of shipments to China since October, with a range of -13.7%. It is expected that the arrivals in December-January will fall sharply.
In October 2018, the global shipment of bleached softwood pulp to China was 626,000 tons, down 13.7% year-on-year. It is expected that the arrival time of the shipment will be from December to January 2019. It is expected that shipments from November to December will continue to decline sharply year-on-year. Why is there such a trend? Because China's price is not good. Therefore, it is expected that the amount of floating needle arrivals in the first quarter of 2019 will fall sharply.
Third, the main commodity wood pulp production location where the net reduction of forests is serious, the wood chip resources are scarce.
The main commodity wood pulp production areas are Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, Canada and other regions. Since 1990 to 2015, the national forest resources have shown a trend of net reduction, with Indonesia and Brazil having the largest net reductions, all exceeding 500,000 hectares/year. The net reduction in Chile is between 250,000 and 500,000 hectares per year, and the net reduction in Canada is at 50,000 hectares per year. Only the forest resources of China and the United States have increased netly in the past 25 years. However, the Chinese government has strictly restricted the deforestation of forest resources for pulping, and the policy trend will not change. The development of Chenming Paper's Huanggang forest is blocked. As an example, it can be seen.
4. In 2019, the global new commercial pulp production capacity is lower than the capacity contraction.
According to PPPC, C&D statistics, in 2019, APPOKI will have nearly 300,000 tons of bleaching and will supply its own papermaking capacity. Stora Enso will have 350,000 tons of bleaching needles in the second quarter. Asia Pacific Semper has a total of 700,000 tons of bleaching, Chilean silver. In the third quarter of the star, there was a total of 400,000 tons of needle width, which was converted into dissolving pulp. In the new capacity statistics, China's Sun Laos 500,000 tons of broad-leaved chemical pulp has been converted to dissolving pulp. Chenming's total of 700,000 tons of needle width will also be used to supply its downstream new papermaking capacity and will not flow into the commercial pulp market. In 2019, the overall supply of the commercial pulp market declined.
5. In October 2018, the US “Mc Hurricane†will affect nearly 800,000 tons of softwood pulp production capacity in North America.
In October 2018, a strong hurricane named "Mike" hit the northwestern part of Florida, UBS estimated that the hurricane will affect nearly 800,000 tons of softwood pulp production in the region, and the global demand for softwood pulp is reduced in China since October. It also has a certain relationship with this, the hurricane will affect the global supply of softwood pulp for a long time in the future.
6. In 2019, the demand for Chinese paper mills is expected to pick up.
In 2018, the demand for paper mills in China declined overall. The reason is closely related to the overall destocking of the downstream. The reaction is the low acceptance of high paper prices in the first year and the extreme pessimism about the demand of the paper industry in the future. expected. Regardless of how the expectations change, the current fact is that the raw unit stock of the production unit has reached the low level and has the space for replenishment. Combined with our judgment on the emergence of bottom-type macroeconomic policies next year, terminal demand is likely to be better than current expectations next year. The downstream replenishment will drive the recovery of paper mill demand, which will drive the overall demand for wood pulp to pick up.
7. Recently, Brazil's two broad-leaved commercial pulp producers have merged into the final process, and a total of 11 million tons of broad-leaf commercial pulp capacity will form synergies.
The combination of Brazilian parrots and goldfish has resulted in a synergy of nearly 11 million tons of commercial broadleaf pulp production capacity, accounting for more than 30% of the global commercial broadleaf pulp production capacity, and the pricing power of commercial broadleaf pulp suppliers has further increased. From the historical price of needle broadleaf, the price of broadleaf can be described as the bottom of the needle price. The price of pulp continues to be limited in power and space.
Eight, under the global ban, the demand for wood pulp fiber is expected to be structurally improved.
In early November 2018, the EU voted through a comprehensive “ban on plasticsâ€, which approved the ban on the use of disposable plastic products in 2021 to curb the destruction of marine ecological environment by increasingly serious plastic waste. The overall ban will become a global trend and irreversible. The reason is that China and Southeast Asia are currently implementing a comprehensive import ban policy, and this policy will not be reversed. Waste in the developed countries of Europe and the United States will not be used in the future and can only be banned. Therefore, under the global ban, the only plastic pulp products used to replace disposable plastic packaging products are wood pulp fibers with strong renewable properties. The demand for wood pulp fibers is structurally improved in the future.
Nine, the domestic paper packaging five-layer board to the three-layer board transfer trend, the high-quality wood pulp fiber usage will be improved.
At present, the proportion of five-layer board in China's paper packaging is close to 60%, while the proportion in Europe is less than 10%, and that in North America is close to 7%. Under the strict import waste paper policy started this year, the shortage of domestic waste paper raw materials has become a certain trend, packaging. It is an effective solution to replace the five-layer board with a three-layer board to reduce the amount of base paper. However, the customer's requirements for packaging protection and cushioning function are not reduced by weight reduction, so the fiber quality is better. The future is used in the production of raw materials for boxboard corrugated paper. It is roughly estimated that the annual output of the national box corrugated paper is about 56 million tons. Due to the quality requirements, the increase of 5% (possibly more) of wood pulp fiber in the raw materials will drive the demand of domestic wood pulp of about 2.8 million tons, corresponding to domestic demand. About 8% of demand increases flexibility.
10. Since 2014, international wood pulp prices have been decoupled from mainstream commodity prices, and wood pulp has its own unique demand logic.
Beginning in mid-2014, Brent crude oil and iron ore prices fell sharply, while international wood pulp prices remained stable. Both crude oil and iron ore prices rebounded in 2015, and wood pulp prices began to bottom out. At the beginning, iron ore and crude oil prices fluctuated upward, while wood pulp prices rose sharply during the same period.
From the historical price data, the international wood pulp price has been decoupled from the bulk commodity prices such as crude oil and iron ore since 2014. Wood pulp has its own unique structural demand improvement logic, on the one hand, the paper consumption upgrade The penetration rate of wood pulp fiber in paper products has increased. On the other hand, the rapid increase in demand for tissue paper in the new economy is also driving the overall demand for wood pulp fibers.
2018 is the first year of high price of paper and paper products in China. The industry's discomfort and high price panic has led to a temporary decline in demand. With the global shortage of wood resources, the supply pattern of wood pulp and paper is increasingly optimized, and barriers are constantly improving. The overall ROE level shift will still be the judgment of the industry.
The plunge in the listing of pulp futures has given historic hedging opportunities for pulp-based companies. Enterprises seize opportunities and lock in costs, and can use more energy for front-end sales channels and market share development.
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